Not long after Katrina, I wrote a piece speculating about the future of New Orleans. For many years, New Orleans was the largest city in the state. When the Galveston hurricane of 1900 (read “Isaac’s Storm” for a great account of this incident) wiped out the city, it was then the crown jewel of the Texas Gulf Coast. The Great Storm of 1900 almost wiped Galveston off the face of the earth. After that, investment and population moved to Houston; Galveston became a boutique city.

Wikipedia states, “The most important long-term impact of the hurricane was to confirm fears that Galveston was a dangerous place to make major investments in shipping and manufacturing operations; the economy of the Golden Era was no longer possible as investors fled. In 1920, Prohibition and lax law enforcement opened up new opportunities for criminal enterprises related to gambling and bootlegging in the city. Galveston rapidly became a prime resort destination enabled by the open vice businesses on the island. This new entertainment-based economy brought decades-long prosperity to the island.”

Sound familiar?

In my original piece, I speculated if New Orleans would become the next Galveston, and Baton Rouge, the next Houston. It’s true that New Orleans’ population has not returned to its pre-Katrina numbers, whereas Baton Rouge’s population has increased. However, the New Orleans metropolitan area population of 1.17 million still outstrips Greater Baton Rouge’s 802,500.

The difference is that New Orleans, more and more, is becoming a city whose main source of income is revenue derived from the hospitality industry, unlike Baton Rouge, which has more of a standard business orientation. With the numbers of sporting events, conventions, and festivals we currently host in the city, visitors to New Orleans are growing by leaps and bounds, even with the lousy worldwide economy.

It’s ambitious to try to create a new market; it takes an enormous amount of marketing investment to promote it, and a relatively long period of time to build momentum. It may be easier to capitalize on factors the city already possesses rather than try to recreate the wheel.

I’m certainly anxious—just like everyone else in the country—to see more manufacturing jobs returning to the US and to Louisiana. But we have to face the fact that we don’t have the educated (or motivated) populace that’s going to create a manufacturing or high-tech economy in New Orleans.

We also have an inferior physical location in terms of access and distribution that prevents sizeable manufacturers from locating here; it’s something we have no control over.

So can we continue to capitalize on what we already have? A truly fascinating, relatively cheap place to live, an endless wealth of cultural attractions, food, music, joie de vivre, tolerance for eccentricities (that you’d never find in Baton Rouge), sporting events—although I personally would never decide to live in a city because of the sports activities. We have recently acknowledged that we have city with an orientation towards culture and cultural development. But we also have much poverty in the city, subpar educational opportunities, and a complacent population who’d rather laissez-faire than TCB. Crime is increasing, and we have a police department and justice system that needs a whole lot of work and revision.

What’s ahead for us? Do we become an entertainment and cultural mecca and de-emphasize trying to get manufacturing concerns in the city?  Throw ourselves full-force into becoming a cultural center? Or do we do economic development the way it’s “always been done,” by focusing on manufacturing jobs?

What do you think?